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2024 might be the year bitcoin (BTC-USD) sees new all-time highs thanks to two key catalysts: potential spot exchange-traded fund approval and the halving event.
With the earliest deadline for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to greenlight a spot bitcoin (BTC-USD) ETF just one week away, investors appear to be jumping on the FOMO (fear of missing out) train.
To be sure, the highest-profile crypto (BTC-USD) topped $45K early in Tuesday’s session for the first time in almost two years, spurring a rally in crypto-linked stocks. BTC, up some 160% in 2023, changed hands at $44.9K at the time of writing.
“With current prices now sitting above $40K and being almost 3 years removed from the last bull market, Bitcoin is in a prime position to appreciate and I would imagine many institutional investors will be buying their stake in the Bitcoin network relatively soon,” said crypto expert Brandon Zemp, citing the likely spot ETF approval in early January and the halving event in April.
Note that in each of the last three halvings, which occurs once every four years, the price of bitcoin (BTC-USD) hit records.
That’s not to say the coin doesn’t face risks. One of BTC’s biggest, looming headwinds is the unfriendly regulatory environment, but that didn’t seem to bother the token last year.
“Though the crypto space continues to wade through an unfriendly regulatory situation with several “after-the-fact” actions from SEC on the heels of missing Terra/LUNA, Celsius, Voyager, and of course FTX, BTC has been undeterred this year in its strong ascent higher,” Seeking Alpha Analyst Jason Appel said in his bitcoin outlook.
James Foord, Investing Group Leader of ‘The Pragmatic Investor,’ is bullish on bitcoin (BTC-USD), though he reckons investors already may have priced in the expected price appreciation from the upcoming halving event.
“With everyone expecting a halving rally, it’s possible that the market may not behave as expected, and the final Bitcoin price target could be lower than anticipated,” he wrote in mid-December.
Foord laid out another risk: “since Bitcoin is so tied to liquidity, I don’t think it will be immune to a deflationary recession, something which is becoming more likely in the past few months and could hit in 2024.”
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