Polymarket Pegs Approval Odds At 45%

It doesn’t look too promising for spot Ethereum ETFs as the odds of receiving approval from the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on or before May 31 have not improved based on market observer’s take.

Polymarket Spot Ethereum ETF Approval Odds Pegged at 45%

Data from the top prediction platform Polymarket shows that the odds for spot Ethereum ETF approval are currently at 45%. 

This suggests that there has not been any progress since the last month on the proposed ETF offering. In March, several Polymarket gamblers placed their bets against Ethereum ETF approval by May 31. An obvious division among these gamblers also positioned the odds at 45% at the time. 

Before spot Bitcoin ETFs received a green light from the SEC, the enthusiasm for Ethereum ETF approval soared as high as 80%. However, the confidence in the possibility of having the SEC consider the offering has dwindled drastically. In the last few weeks, the intense effort of the SEC to christen the underlying cryptocurrency of the proposed ETF offering as securities has further dampened the likelihood of approval.

Over time, many experts and crypto enthusiasts have exhibited optimism toward spot Ethereum ETF approval. They draw their precedents from the favorable action of the SEC towards spot Bitcoin ETF in January which ended up pushing the offering to unparalleled heights where it competes with the likes of Gold ETFs. 

However, recent actions from the SEC have led many to lose faith in the possibility of a spot Ethereum ETF.

SEC Moves Against Ethereum Foundation

In its bid to achieve the securities designation, some United States companies were recently subpoenaed by the SEC about an investigation into ETH a few weeks ago. 

The Commission demanded that these U.S-based firms provide documents and financial records related to their transactions with the Ethereum Foundation. This impacted negatively on the spot Ethereum ETF sentiment significantly. So far, a handful of applicants for the offering have amended their filings and are still waiting for the agency to make a decision.

The SEC is currently awaiting feedback from the public after initiating a public comment period for several proposed spot Ethereum ETFs. Some of the products in view include the Fidelity Ethereum Fund, Bitwise Ethereum Fund, and the Grayscale Ethereum Trust amongst others. 

The agency has given a three-week deadline for public comments. While this move demonstrates that the SEC is interested in continued scrutiny of these new financial products, it has not done much to improve the odds.